Long Bond Replay

Commit to a thesis on a blind window of TLT, then watch the tape run. Scored in R, with the 10-year yield revealed only after you commit.

0Scored

—Hit rate

—Expectancy

—Calibration

TLT ATR14 — Hover the chart for values

up down 10Y yield Daily bars; the x-axis counts bars from the decision. A stop or target fills at its level when the bar's range touches it — at the open if price gaps through — and the stop wins a bar that touches both.

Write the thesis first

Invalidation (stop)

The price that proves the idea wrong. Everything is scored against this distance.

Target

Levels you read on the chart

None marked. After the reveal, each level is checked against where the 10-year was trading.

Horizon

Trading days the idea gets to work.

Confidence

1 · coin flip35 · high

Why (one line)

Journal

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Decision date	Dir	Conf	Entry	Stop	Target	Hz	Stop·ATR	MAE	R	Outcome

No scored attempts yet. Commit a thesis above and the tape gets added here.

Calibration

Stated confidence vs. realised hit rate

Bars above the dashed line mean you were more right than you claimed; below it, overconfident. Getting these to sit on the line is the skill — it matters more than the hit rate itself.

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